Monday, July 9, 2018

PRO/AH/EDR> Rift Valley fever - Eastern Africa (12): FAO, forecast

RIFT VALLEY FEVER - EASTERN AFRICA (12): FAO, FORECAST
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Date: Mon 9 Jul 2018 [accessed]
Source: FAO Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin No. 28,
July-September 2018 [edited]
<http://www.fao.org/3/ca0354en/CA0354EN.PDF>


After a period of abnormal, heavy rainfall and floods in the Eastern
African region, an outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) was 1st
reported in humans in Kenya; later it was confirmed that the disease
was present in animals. These outbreaks are ongoing and pose a threat
to the whole Eastern African region. Although the upcoming [dry]
season from July 2018 onwards will be unsuitable for the vector
populations in most of the Eastern African region (except for
Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan), the potential spread of
the disease through animal movements and informal trade routes within
and outside of Kenya is likely to occur.

Therefore, FAO advises the veterinary services and livestock farmers'
communities in the region to remain vigilant to the potential
occurrence and spread of RVF in humans and/or animals. In particular,
the risk of RVF spread is considered to be very high in Kenya and
moderate in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan,
Sudan, Uganda, and United Republic of Tanzania. In addition, given the
current and predicted above average precipitation forecasts for the
period June-September 2018, southern Sudan and western Ethiopia may
also experience suitable environmental conditions for RVF vector
amplification.

The outbreak in Kenya is not the 1st RVF re-emergence in the region:
during the past 7 months, RVF infections have been reported in Uganda
(November 2017) and South Sudan (December 2017). Informal cross-border
movement of livestock, conflicts, and a lack of veterinary services
can facilitate the spread of RVF within the affected countries in East
Africa.

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail
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[The above forecast may have been issued before the lab confirmation
of the 1st RVF case in Uganda on 29 Jun 2018. This event involved a
human patient; no animal cases have been reported there yet.

According to earlier reports from Rwanda, RVF has been causing disease
and mortality in animals since April 2018. So far, this information
has not been submitted to the OIE, and no information on diagnostic
tests applied has become available. Notably, the FAO Early Warning
Bulletin refers to Rwanda as a country in which the risk of RVF spread
is considered to be "moderate."

In Kenya, RVF was recorded initially in the Wajir county (within the
former North Eastern province) and later in at least 6 additional
counties affecting humans and animals. On Thu 5 Jul 2018, the Wajir
County government lifted the ban on consumption of meat and milk. The
county Health Chief Officer Abdirahman Mathow said the disease has
been contained (see at
<http://www.kenya24news.com/kenya/wajir-lifts-meat-ban-says-rift-valley-fever-contained/35417-news>).

In West Africa, precipitation forecast for June-September 2018
predicts above average rainfall in southwest Mali and southeast Niger,
which are both endemic countries for RVF. These countries should,
according to the FAO, remain vigilant about RVF in the coming months.

The South African region has a low risk of vector amplification
because it is entering the winter season, which is cold and dry with
low rainfall, and because of the highly localized nature of the
current outbreak in South Africa. However, given the fact that the
said outbreak is ongoing, the risk of further spread within the
country is considered to be moderate due to movement of infected
livestock. - Mod.AS

HealthMap/ProMED map available at:
Africa: <http://healthmap.org/promed/p/6075>]

[See Also:
Rift Valley fever - Eastern Africa (11): Rwanda (SU), bovine, spread
http://promedmail.org/post/20180706.5890383
Rift Valley fever - Eastern Africa (10): Kenya, WHO, livestock
vaccination http://promedmail.org/post/20180704.5886934
Rift Valley fever - Eastern Africa (09): Kenya, animals
http://promedmail.org/post/20180702.5885427
Rift Valley fever - Eastern Africa (08): Kenya, Uganda, human,
animals, spread http://promedmail.org/post/20180701.5884295
Rift Valley fever - Eastern Africa (07): Kenya, animals, spread
http://promedmail.org/post/20180626.5877838
Rift Valley fever - Rwanda (03): (ES) bovine, spread, animal
vaccination http://promedmail.org/post/20180617.5860330
Rift Valley fever - Rwanda (02): (ES) bovine, spread, alert
http://promedmail.org/post/20180615.5858105
Rift Valley fever - Rwanda: (ES) bovine
http://promedmail.org/post/20180609.5846453
Rift Valley fever - Kenya (03): (WJ) camel, human, OIE
http://promedmail.org/post/20180609.5847976]
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